BAGUIO CITY – September is forecasted to have the most number of tropical cyclones while the months of June, November and December will have the least this year according to PAGASA-Baguio Station weather specialist II Hilario Esperanza.
He made the announcement during the City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (CDRRMC) 2nd quarterly meeting at the CDRRM Office Thursday with CDRRMO chief Yolanda Munar presiding. In attendance are representatives from various local and national government offices and agencies, volunteer groups, non-government organizations, and others.
Esperanza said that PAGASA is forecasting one or two tropical cyclones to hit the country in June; two or three in July; two or three in August; two to four in September; two or three in October; one or two in November; and one or two in December.
He stressed that PAGASA cannot yet determine the strength of these forecasted weather disturbances. The weather official said the Philippines is visited by an average of 20 tropical cyclones a year but that there may be fewer this 2019 due to a “persisting weak El Nino”.
El Nino is part of a routine climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to above-normal levels for an extended period of time.
He added that PAGASA predicts a 70 percent chance that EL Nino will continue from June to August and a 55 to 60 percent chance it will prevail from September to November, this year.
Esperanza said that four tropical cyclones have hit the country so far since the start of the year with the latest being Tropical Depression “Dodong”.**gaby keith
