By Danilo P. Padua, PhD
fertilizers..”
The current turmoil in the Middle East had resulted to unparalleled increases in international oil prices making lives very difficult in most oil-importing nations like the Philippines.
It started on Feb 28, 2026 when a combined U.S. and Israeli military adventurism bombed Iran killing its Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, several of its officials and civilians, and destroying some of its nuclear power facilities. Shortly thereafter, bombs also destroyed other Iranian military targets, government facilities, hospitals, schools and heritage sites.
Iran retaliated by using drones and firing missiles hitting various targets in Israel and other Middle East countries hosting American bases. After 27 days, we are all suffering the impact of the resulting oil crisis situation spawned by that ill-advised bombing by America and Israel.
Today, in this corner, I am giving way to the article of former DA Sec William Dar published Mar 26, 2026 at The Manila Times, Entitled:”The impact of the Middle East war on food security; what must be done”
Its quite long but, I picked out only some very important points related to fertilizer, to fit
this space. His recommendation on how to increase agricultural production amidst the crisis is even left out. Here it is:
“The past three weeks has been very stressful for us Filipinos, especially those who are in
the lower-income bracket.
Fuel prices, primarily diesel and petrol — have already exceeded the P100 per liter level (more than PhP120/li for diesel in Baguio-dpp). As to when fuel prices will go down to “normal” levels can be anybody’s guess. But I believe that won’t be happening soon.
While there is still adequate food supply in the Philippines as I write this column, let me push the alarm button on the potentially grave impact of the Middle East war on local and global food production.
One commodity traded globally — inorganic fertilizer — can become as precious as gold if the Middle East war drags on.
Like fuel, inorganic fertilizer is produced from crude oil. Also, according to geopolitical analysts, the disruption of passage at the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of about 33 percent of the world’s inorganic fertilizer supply. Read that again — 33 percent or one third of global supply.
The major exporters of inorganic fertilizer are Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both of which have been under attack from Iran since Feb. 28, the day the Middle East war started.
The rising cost and shortage of natural gas is also forcing cutbacks in the production of ammonia, an important input for nitrogen-based fertilizers. A good example is Europe, which hosts at least 30 ammonia-producing plants and account for 10 percent of global production.
A paper from Japan-based MUFG stated that the impact of the Middle East conflict on fertilizer and food production will be felt in the second half of this year. It said that while the Philippines is not largely dependent on the Middle East for fertilizer, the spillover effect globally can be devastating.
“While the Philippines only imports 7 percent of its fertilizers directly from the Middle East, regional food producers such as India and Thailand have quite high dependence on fertilizer imports from the Middle East (40 percent and 34 percent, respectively). In addition, globally, 15 percent of overall fertilizer and closer to 20-30 percent of urea-based fertilizers are dependent on the Middle East region. All these could over time have some spillover impact to global food prices and hence also inflation, the impact which may only be seen from 2H2026 (second half of 2026),” MUFG said.
I recently had a meeting with the director general of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Dr. Qu Dongyu, a very good friend even before I had my first stint as DA Sec in 1998.
We discussed, among others, the potential impact of the Middle East war on global and local food production.We both share the view that if the Middle East war lingers longer than necessary, this will impact the food production of both developed and developing countries, but the latter will suffer more.
I recommended to Dr. Qu, for FAO to elevate its assistance for developing countries, including sourcing fertilizers.
The FAO chief agreed, and the agency has a program for that, of which the implementation can be elevated amid the current geopolitical crisis.”
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