Engineer Larry Esperanza, Senior Weather Specialist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Baguio Observatory, presented the latest climate outlook and updated monitoring data during the DANUM 2026 summit last May 29.
He explained that while rainfall will remain sufficient in the coming months, a significant decline is expected starting October, potentially worsening into prolonged drought by the first quarter of next year.
Current Status: At threshold, shift imminent
Based on the May 26, 2026 climate update, Esperanza said that sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific currently stands at 0.5°C, placing the region still within the “Neutral” phase. However, latest models indicate a high probability of a shift.
“El Niño is officially declared when temperatures rise above +0.5°C. We are currently at the threshold, and data shows an 82% chance El Niño will develop between May to July, rising to 92% probability from June to August,” Esperanza said.
He noted that the phenomenon will start as “weak,” but will steadily gain strength: becoming moderate by August, strong (1.5°C to 1.9°C above normal) by September–November, and potentially reaching “very strong” or “super” El Niño levels (more than 2.0°C above normal) by October to December, with a 30% probability.
“By the end of this year, it is almost certain we will be under a strong El Niño condition, and this weather pattern may continue until the first quarter of 2027,” he said.
Rainfall Outlook: Enough until September, sharp decline thereafter
Esperanza presented a month-by-month forecast for the Cordillera region, including Baguio City, outlining a clear pattern: adequate rainfall during the wet season followed by critically dry conditions toward the end of the year.
June: Near normal rainfall; areas including Benguet expected to receive over 300mm of rain. Weather systems such as the Easterlies and localized thunderstorms prevail.
July–August: Above normal rainfall, enhanced by the onset of the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat and passage of tropical cyclones. This period is crucial for watershed water collection.
September: Near normal rainfall still expected.
October: Rainfall begins to drop significantly; forecast shows below normal levels across Northern Luzon.
November: Sharp reduction in rainfall; way below normal rainfall projected. Dry days will increase drastically, with Baguio and Benguet expected to record only about 6 rainy days during this month.
“While we have good water collection from July to August, the reduction comes fast. By November, our maps turn red, meaning critically low rainfall volume,” Esperanza noted.
He confirmed that as of May 2026, actual monitoring already shows the entire Cordillera region is under drought conditions, defined by five consecutive months of below normal rainfall. While this may temporarily ease during the rainy season, dry conditions are projected to return in November, worsen to dry spell in December, and potentially revert to drought by early 2027.
Warmer days, fewer but stronger typhoons
Temperatures are expected to peak at 28.7°C this June in Baguio City, with generally warmer conditions prevailing until the transition to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) in November, where minimum temperatures may drop to 12.5°C.
For tropical cyclones, PAGASA forecasts nine to 13 typhoons entering or developing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from June to November.
“Most will occur from July to September. While we expect fewer typhoons towards the end of the year, those that do enter are likely to be intense, reaching typhoon or super typhoon category,” Esperanza clarified.
Key impacts and advisory
Esperanza summarized the projected impacts of the 2026–2027 El Niño:
– Enhanced rainfall and possible flooding on the western side of Luzon from June to September due to the Habagat.
– Reduced water availability and prolonged dry spells starting November.
– Drought conditions highly likely in early 2027 if El Niño persists.
– Warmer temperatures expected during the 2027 dry season.
“Stronger El Niño does not automatically mean worse impacts, but it significantly increases the likelihood of severe conditions. We are now under El Niño Alert. This means preparations must be made now, while we still have time,” Esperanza stated.
PAGASA assured continuous monitoring, with the next climate forum and update scheduled on June 24, 2026, as part of the agency’s monthly assessment to guide local government units and communities in their water security and disaster risk reduction plans. **JDP/MAWC-PIA-CAR
